Month: November 2024

UK export growth could shrink by up to £8.5 billion over two years if a full-scale US-China trade war erupts, Allianz Trade has warned.
A protracted trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies could severely impact the UK’s manufacturing sector, according to Allianz Trade, the trade credit division of the global insurance and investment manager Allianz, formerly known as Euler Hermes.
The organisation cautioned that an escalation of US tariffs on China to 60 per cent for all goods—both critical and non-critical—and 10 per cent for imports from the rest of the world could result in significant economic fallout. However, Allianz Trade described such a scenario as “unlikely,” highlighting the detrimental effects on the US economy itself, including a projected 1.2 percentage point hit to GDP growth and a 0.6 percentage point rise in inflation by 2026.
Global trade would also feel the pinch, with growth potentially slowing by 2.4 percentage points under the maximum-tariff scenario.
A more moderate tariff increase—raising existing US tariffs on Chinese imports from 13 per cent to 25 per cent and introducing smaller hikes of 5 per cent for imports from other countries (excluding Mexico and Canada)—could still hinder UK export growth by approximately £2.2 billion over two years. It would also reduce global trade growth by 0.6 percentage points, Allianz Trade noted.
Capital Economics offered a more optimistic view, arguing that the UK’s direct exposure to potential Trump-era tariffs would be limited. Unlike China, Mexico, or the European Union, the UK does not run a significant trade surplus in goods with the US. Trade in goods between the two nations is broadly balanced, with the UK’s services exports—twice the value of its goods exports—unlikely to be affected by tariffs.
Capital Economics estimated that a hypothetical 10 per cent tariff on all UK goods exported to the US would result in a negligible impact on UK GDP, ranging from -0.1 per cent to +0.1 per cent. This is due to the likely exemption of services exports and the offsetting effect of a weaker pound, which would make UK goods more competitively priced in US markets.
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US-China trade war risks wiping £8.5bn from UK exports, warns Allianz Trade

Meta Platforms has been fined €797.72 million (£663 million) by the European Commission over alleged anti-competitive practices involving Facebook Marketplace.
The European Union regulator ruled that Meta breached competition laws by linking its social network with Facebook Marketplace, giving it an unfair advantage over rival online classified services.
Margrethe Vestager, the European Commission’s executive vice-president for competition policy, stated that Meta’s actions provided the company “advantages that other online classified ads service providers could not match,” deeming it illegal under EU antitrust regulations. “Meta must now stop this behaviour,” Vestager said.
Meta has announced plans to appeal the decision. The company, which also owns Instagram and WhatsApp, claimed the ruling fails to prove “competitive harm” to its rivals or consumers and “ignores the realities of the thriving European market for online classified listing services.” Meta argued that many Facebook users choose not to engage with Marketplace, highlighting that it remains an optional feature.
Facebook launched its Marketplace platform in 2016 and expanded it across Europe a year later. The European Commission initiated its investigation into Meta’s practices in 2021. Under EU antitrust rules, companies found in violation risk fines of up to 10% of their global revenue.
The ruling is part of an ongoing regulatory clampdown on Meta within the EU. Last year, the company faced a record €1.2 billion fine for breaching EU data privacy regulations. Ireland’s Data Protection Commission found that Meta failed to adequately protect European users’ data when transferring it to the United States, where it was exposed to surveillance by U.S. authorities. Meta’s European operations are headquartered in Dublin.
In the United States, Meta is also under scrutiny. The Federal Trade Commission has sued the company over its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp, alleging they were intended to eliminate competition. Meta has defended these acquisitions, asserting they have “benefited competition and consumers alike.”
As the EU continues to tighten its grip on major technology firms, Meta has delayed the release of its latest AI model in Europe, attributing the delay to “unpredictable” regulatory conditions. This latest antitrust fine underscores the European Union’s increasing resolve to regulate the market dominance of US-based tech giants.
Meanwhile, changes to the EU’s approach could be on the horizon as Margrethe Vestager, who has championed significant fines against US tech firms, prepares to step down as competition commissioner. She is expected to be succeeded by Teresa Ribera, Spain’s environment minister, who is anticipated to balance oversight of technology companies with support for European businesses.
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Meta hit with €800m fine by EU for antitrust breach in Facebook Marketplace case

The Bank of England’s ability to set effective interest rates is being hindered by unreliable labour market statistics, according to governor Andrew Bailey, who has highlighted the shortage of accurate data on the UK’s workforce as a “substantial problem.”
Speaking at Mansion House to an audience of City financiers, Bailey voiced his concerns over the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) failure to obtain sufficient responses for its Labour Force Survey, which has plagued data collection for the past 18 months. This lack of reliable information on employment status has forced the Bank to lean on alternative data measures as it navigates crucial monetary policy decisions.
“Labour Force Survey challenges are widely recognised,” Bailey commented. “It’s a substantial issue – not just for monetary policy – when we lack clear insight into workforce participation. We could certainly benefit from more engagement across the UK with ONS survey efforts.”
Bailey’s remarks underscore his growing frustration with the UK’s inability to maintain robust workforce data. He highlighted that, alongside the Treasury and other key stakeholders, the Bank continues to work closely with the ONS to improve the quality of UK labour data.
While other advanced economies have seen labour market re-entry post-pandemic, the UK has struggled with a decline in labour force participation, a trend Bailey warns could hamper economic performance. The ONS has attempted to address the issue by increasing its survey participants from 44,000 in 2022 to 59,000 this year, though it has cautioned users against relying too heavily on short-term Labour Force Survey data for decision-making.
Bailey emphasised that understanding labour supply dynamics is essential for gauging the UK’s overall economic capacity, which has been further pressured by Brexit-related trade restrictions, energy price shocks, and sluggish investment.
Investment boost for UK economy through isa reform proposed by lord mayor
At the same Mansion House event, Alastair King, lord mayor of London, proposed reforms to the UK’s Individual Savings Accounts (Isas) that would encourage investment in domestic assets. King urged the government to incentivise investors, suggesting that full tax relief could be contingent on funds directed towards UK-focused investments.
“Redirecting funds from non-productive to productive assets could scale up British firms, enhance returns for savers, and broaden market participation,” King stated. His proposal, which he argued would not require additional government funding, aims to align UK practices with those of international counterparts.
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Bank of England governor highlights ‘substantial problem’ with UK labour data accuracy in Mansion House speech

HMRC will reduce the interest rate it charges on late tax payments to 7.25% from 18th November, following the recent cut in the Bank of England’s base rate.
However, this reduction highlights a stark disparity: taxpayers will receive only 3.75% interest on tax refunds, leaving a 3.5% gap in favour of HMRC.
The revised interest rates apply to new tax debts and quarterly instalment taxpayers from 18th November and will be effective from 26th November for those on non-quarterly plans. While any reduction in interest charges may sound beneficial, tax insurance specialist Qdos warns that the focus should remain on meeting the 31st January self-assessment deadline to avoid late payment penalties.
Seb Maley, CEO of Qdos, voiced concerns over the interest rate difference, stating, “The real talking point here – the elephant in the room – is the difference between the interest rate HMRC charges on late payments and the rate it offers on refunds. While this approach may align with practices of other tax authorities, it feels particularly unfair to the self-employed, who are often disproportionately impacted.”
With January’s self-assessment deadline approaching, taxpayers are reminded to prioritise timely compliance to avoid the 7.25% late payment interest rate and additional penalties. Taxpayers awaiting refunds, however, may see a reduced rate of 3.75% – a disparity that raises questions about fairness in the system.
Maley added, “More than ever, self-employed individuals need to be vigilant about tax compliance, as late payments can come at a high cost. HMRC’s higher charges on late payments compared to refunds remain a contentious issue that deserves further scrutiny.”
As the self-assessment deadline nears, taxpayers are encouraged to take all necessary steps to ensure timely payments, avoiding potential penalties in an economic climate where every percentage point matters.
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HMRC’s lower interest rate on late payments overshadows refund disparity

The Post Office has announced potential closures of 115 Crown Post Office branches, placing up to 1,000 jobs at risk in a significant restructuring aimed at reducing losses.
The proposed changes may lead to franchise arrangements with third-party operators like WHSmith taking over affected branches. However, this shake-up has drawn sharp criticism from unions and community advocates.
The Communication Workers Union (CWU) condemned the timing, as the move coincides with the ongoing Horizon IT scandal inquiry, labelling it “immoral” and “tone deaf.” The Horizon scandal, in which hundreds of sub-postmasters were wrongly prosecuted due to faulty software, remains fresh in the public memory, with many calling for transparency and justice.
Under new chairman Nigel Railton, the Post Office aims to put the organisation on a more sustainable financial footing amidst challenges like competition from parcel operators and declining letter revenues. Losses reached £81 million in the 2022-23 financial year, with nearly half of its branches operating at minimal or negative profitability.
Railton emphasised the need for a “fresh start,” with plans to invest £250 million annually in the network by 2030, contingent on government support. This includes an improved banking offer and a modern, “lower-risk” IT system, addressing long-standing technology issues. Railton described the process as “right-sizing” the organisation to better meet future demands.
Growing Community Dependence on the Post Office
With bank branch closures escalating across the UK, Post Offices have become essential for cash and banking services in local communities. The closures, if they proceed, will disproportionately impact rural and urban communities where alternatives are limited. In July alone, over £3.7 billion was withdrawn or deposited at Post Offices, highlighting their critical role.
Community advocates, like Martin Quinn from *Campaign for Cash*, argue that the government should treat the Post Office network as essential infrastructure. “This is another nail in the coffin for communities that rely on the Post Office for cash access,” he warned, urging the government to halt the closures.
The government has been in “positive” discussions with Railton, with Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds suggesting that Post Office branches could step in to fill gaps left by bank closures. However, with the rapid rise of digital banking, the viability of a high-street-based strategy remains uncertain.
Separately, ministers are considering transferring Post Office ownership to sub-postmasters to protect local services. A government spokesperson stated, “We are in active discussions with Nigel Railton to strengthen the network for a sustainable future.”
Impact on Jobs and Local Services
The proposed closure list includes branches across the UK, from major city centres to rural areas, affecting towns such as Glasgow, Oxford, London Bridge, and Stornoway. The Post Office has stressed it does not plan to reduce its total network of over 8,500 independently run branches. However, CWU officials argue that this move risks further alienating communities dependent on the Post Office network.
Here is a full list of the branches affected by the Post Office’s closure plans:
Antrim
Bangor
Belfast City
Edinburgh City
Glasgow
Haddington
Inverness
Kirkwall
Londonderry
Newtownards
Saltcoats
Springburn Way
Stornoway
Wester Hailes
Barnes Green
Bransholme
Bridlington
Chester Le Street
Crossgates
Eccles
Furness House
Grimsby
Hyde
Kendal
Manchester
Morecambe
Morley
Poulton Le Fylde
Prestwich
Rotherham
Salford City
Sheffield City
South Shields
St Johns
Sunderland City
The Markets
Birmingham
Breck Road
Caernarfon
Didsbury Village
Harlesden
Kettering
Kingsbury
Leigh
Leighton Buzzard
Matlock
Milton Keynes
Northolt
Old Swan
Oswestry
Oxford
Redditch
Southall
St Peters Street
Stamford
Stockport
Wealdstone
Barnet
Cambridge City
Canning Town
Cricklewood
Dereham
Golders Green
Hampstead
Harold Hill
Kilburn
Kingsland High Street
Lower Edmonton
Roman Road
South Ockendon
Stamford Hill
Bideford
Dunraven Place
Gloucester
Liskeard
Merthyr Tydfil
Mutley
Nailsea
Newquay
Paignton
Port Talbot
Stroud
Teignmouth
Yate Sodbury
Baker Street
Bexhill On Sea
Cosham
Great Portland Street
Croydon High Street (10)
Kensington
Knightsbridge
Melville Road
Paddington Quay
Portsmouth
Raynes Park
Romsey
Westbourne
Windsor
Worlds End
Aldwych
Brixton
Broadway
City of London
Clapham Common
East Dulwich
Eccleston Street
High Holborn
Houndsditch
Islington
Kennington Park
London Bridge
Lupus Street
Mount Pleasant
Vauxhall Bridge Road
Read more:
Post Office faces backlash over potential closure of 115 branches as jobs and services are at risk

Barclays has introduced the Business Prosperity Index, a new quarterly report offering a detailed view of UK business performance and growth opportunities.
Created with the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), the index combines data from over one million Barclays business clients—including lending, cash flow, and international payments data—and survey insights from 1,000 business leaders, providing a comprehensive gauge of business sentiment.
The inaugural Q3 findings reveal that UK businesses are increasingly confident about growth, with planned investment in Q3 rising by 1.4% year-on-year. Post-Budget, nearly half (46%) of businesses have resumed previously paused investment plans, and 37% are more likely to seek additional funding. To support this ambition, Barclays has launched the Business Prosperity Fund, a £22bn fund designed to aid UK businesses in accessing finance for expansion, available to both new and existing Business Banking and UK Corporate Banking clients.
Matt Hammerstein, CEO of Barclays UK Corporate Banking, expressed cautious optimism: “Our data shows many businesses are ready to kick-start growth by seeking the funding they need. The availability of our £22bn Prosperity Fund will support business investment and help drive economic prosperity.”
Investment Appetite and Challenges
The Q3 survey highlights financial resilience and a strong appetite for investment, with the primary focus on staff training (44%) and R&D (35%). Despite ongoing pressures, 61% of business leaders expressed confidence in the UK economy’s direction. Improved cash flow across Barclays’ business accounts reflects this resilience, with net cash flow increasing by 17% year-on-year as businesses manage outflows effectively.
However, workforce shortages remain a critical challenge, with 62% of businesses citing skilled labour shortages. The issue is most pronounced in Scotland (92%), Yorkshire and the Humber (90%), and the West Midlands (88%). Nearly half of surveyed firms aim to invest in headcount growth, and many are prioritising training to counteract the skills gap.
Post-Inflation Pricing Pressures
While inflation has peaked, high production costs persist, leading businesses to adapt strategies to retain customers amid rising costs. Over half (52%) of firms plan to expand product offerings, despite rising costs, and 65% have introduced pricing adjustments, special offers, or reduced sizes (shrinkflation) to remain competitive.
Hannah Bernard, Head of Barclays Business Banking, noted the significance of the new index as a tool for business leaders and policymakers: “The Business Prosperity Index is designed to be a bellwether for business sentiment, helping businesses navigate the economic landscape and ensuring access to the resources needed for growth.”
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Barclays launches £22bn fund and new business prosperity index to support UK business growth

British farmers will stage a “national strike” next week, withholding meat and crops from supermarkets to protest Labour’s new inheritance tax policies.
Beginning Sunday, thousands of farmers plan to participate in the week-long strike, which includes a march in London on November 19, where over 10,000 farmers are expected to rally against the tax changes introduced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
The policy imposes a 20% inheritance tax on previously exempt farms valued at over £1 million, sparking concerns that it will force many farmers to sell parts of their operations, risking traditional family farm continuity. The Enough Is Enough protest group, representing striking farmers, warned of severe impacts on the industry, stating, “British farmers have simply had enough. We cannot afford to provide food to the public under these conditions.”
The strike will withhold non-perishable items, such as meat and certain crops, from supermarkets, potentially impacting food supplies. UK farms supply approximately 80% of the nation’s beef, 90% of fresh poultry, and large portions of lamb, pork, and wheat. Dairy farmers, however, are exempt from the strike due to the perishability of milk and eggs.
Tim Taylor, a strike organiser and animal feed business owner, noted the strike’s goal is to “disrupt but not decimate supermarket shelves,” aiming for public support.
Industry Concerns and Mental Health Impacts
The tax changes have raised significant concerns across the farming community, with some farmers fearing they may be the last in their family to maintain the business. Welsh farmer Gareth Wyn Jones expressed his decision to join the strike, citing a need to protect the future of his family’s 375-year-old farming legacy.
Mental health support lines for farmers have reported a surge in calls since the policy’s announcement, and the family of South Yorkshire farmer John Charlesworth, 78, revealed he took his own life shortly before the Budget to prevent his children from facing inheritance taxes.
The strike coincides with a “mass lobbying event” organized by the National Farmers’ Union, where nearly 2,000 farmers are expected to meet MPs. Additionally, farmers plan to protest at the Welsh Labour conference in Llandudno on Friday and may halt sewage slurry collection from water companies as an added measure.
The government argues the inheritance tax changes aim to protect family farms while addressing public service needs, stating the adjustments will not impact “the vast majority of farmers.” However, many farmers believe the measures jeopardise the future of UK farming, with some groups suggesting the action could lead to more French-style protests if their concerns are not addressed.
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Farmers to hold ‘national strike’ against inheritance tax changes, disrupting supermarket meat and crop supplies

Entrepreneur and Aston University alumna Dr Isabella Moore CBE is challenging stereotypes about older adults in business, advocating for the transformative power of later-life entrepreneurship to boost health, confidence, and mental well-being.
Prominent businesswoman and founder of the Olderpreneur Alliance, Dr Moore shared her insights on The Healthy Work Podcast with Dr Simon McCabe, where she highlighted the unique advantages older adults bring to the entrepreneurial world.
Drawing on her Aston University research, Dr Moore argues that older adults possess valuable “age capital”—the resilience, skills, and adaptability built over a lifetime—that make them well-suited to entrepreneurship. Her Later-Creator programme, designed to foster confidence and resilience among mature entrepreneurs, aims to support those looking to embark on new ventures after retirement.
“Many individuals I spoke with were worried about losing cognitive abilities in retirement, particularly those with family histories of dementia,” Dr Moore said. “They sought the mental challenge of running a business to stay sharp.”
For many, later-life entrepreneurship is not just about financial gain but also a means to stay mentally active, preserve identity, and contribute meaningfully. Dr Moore noted that societal expectations often discourage older adults, particularly women, from exploring business opportunities. “Many women internalise the idea that they should focus on grandchildren or caregiving rather than business, while men feel pressured to ‘slow down,’” she observed.
Dr Moore advocates for an age-friendly business environment, urging employers, policymakers, and the media to recognise older adults as valuable contributors to the entrepreneurial landscape. Tailored support, she says, is key for older entrepreneurs, addressing life stages, family responsibilities, and the unique expertise they bring.
Dr Simon McCabe, head of the Healthy Work Research Group at Aston Business School, praised Dr Moore’s work, noting that “age capital” offers older entrepreneurs credibility and confidence. “Keeping both physical and mental well-being in check is foundational to navigating the entrepreneurial journey and building resilience,” he added, urging older adults not to let ageist stereotypes hold them back.
As interest in mature entrepreneurship grows, Dr Moore’s work continues to challenge perceptions, opening up new opportunities for older adults to thrive in business and achieve greater well-being.
Read more:
Older adults can thrive as entrepreneurs, says expert

Fleek, the innovative wholesale marketplace for second-hand fashion, has raised $20.4 million to bring the fragmented, offline second-hand clothing industry online.
The Series A funding round was led by HV Capital, with participation from Andreesen Horowitz (a16z) and Y Combinator. Founders and operators from prominent technology companies like Shopify’s President (Harley Finkelstein), Depop’s ex-CEO (Maria Raga), and Postmates’ CTO (Sean Plaice) have also invested. The previous seed round was led by a16z.
Founded in 2021 by Abhi Arora and Sanket Agarwal, Fleek addresses one of the second-hand fashion industry’s biggest challenges: sourcing inventory from a highly fragmented, offline market. The second-hand fashion industry, valued at $200 billion, is expected to grow three times faster than the overall apparel market, reaching $350 billion by 2028.
Fleek’s platform connects over 1,000 suppliers with more than 10,000 resellers across 70 countries. By offering a seamless online marketplace, Fleek enables access to desirable second-hand inventory with competitive pricing, buyer protection, and global logistics support. The platform’s interactive social features, such as chat and live video shopping, foster direct connections between buyers and suppliers, creating a dynamic shopping experience.
Abhi Arora, co-founder and CEO of Fleek, said, “Our mission is clear: to make second-hand the first choice. With this funding, we aim to empower more businesses to embrace sustainable fashion.”
Fleek also leverages AI and predictive analytics to help suppliers understand market trends, enabling buyers to source trending categories like vintage streetwear and upcycled clothing in bulk. This data-driven approach positions Fleek to play a key role in promoting sustainable fashion, offering a viable alternative to fast fashion’s environmental impact.
Felix Klühr, General Partner at HV Capital, commented, “Fleek is redefining the second-hand fashion landscape and setting the stage for a more sustainable future in fashion. We’re excited to support their growth.”
With offices in the UK, Pakistan, and India, Fleek is poised to further transform the wholesale fashion market by providing a streamlined, accessible solution for businesses worldwide looking to enter or expand in the second-hand apparel market.
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Fleek secures $20.4M to bring global wholesale second-hand fashion market online