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Food price inflation is expected to climb above 4 per cent this year, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) has warned, in a sharp reversal of the recent trend of slowing shop prices.
According to the lobby group’s forecasts, prices at the supermarket tills will surge by an average of 4.2 per cent in the second half of the year.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, attributed the looming price increases to rising employer national insurance contributions, higher national living wage rates, and fresh packaging levies, all of which will leave little scope for retailers to absorb the additional burden. “There is little hope of prices going anywhere but up,” she said, urging the government to ensure that its planned shake-up of business rates does not inflict further costs on shops already under pressure.
The BRC’s alarm comes despite evidence that overall shop prices fell by 1 per cent last month, a faster decline than the 0.6 per cent recorded in November. Non-food items dropped by 2.4 per cent year on year, although the later timing of Black Friday in 2024 compared with the previous year may have distorted the figures by boosting discounting activity.
Dickinson noted that while food inflation appeared to have bottomed out at 1.8 per cent, it is now poised to climb again: “With many price pressures on the horizon, shop price deflation is likely to become a thing of the past.”
The warning coincides with separate analysis from City investment firm Shore Capital, which suggested that government policy will be the main driver of grocery inflation this year, rather than commodity prices or exchange rates. The company pointed to the employer national insurance increase, rising to 15 per cent from 13.8 per cent in April, as a significant blow to supermarkets and major retailers. Tesco, for instance, is forecast to face an extra £250 million in costs.
Between 2022 and 2023, rising food and energy bills sent the UK’s overall inflation rate soaring; food inflation, in particular, peaked at 19.3 per cent in March 2023. A subsequent slowdown in both food and energy costs helped to bring consumer price inflation back into single digits, though it nudged up to 2.6 per cent in November from 2.3 per cent the previous month.
Shore Capital cautioned that any renewed surge in food inflation could undermine the Bank of England’s current trajectory of reducing interest rates, at present standing at 4.75 per cent. Investors had anticipated two or three rate cuts this year, but that prospect could come under threat if supermarket prices start moving significantly higher again.
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Food inflation poised to jump above 4% as levies and wage rises weigh on retailers

Taxpayers stand to save both money and headaches in 2025 by committing to better tax practices in the year ahead, according to leading audit, tax and business advisory firm Blick Rothenberg.
Robert Salter, a Director at the firm, notes: “Most people make personal resolutions about health and lifestyle, but your financial health is equally important—and being on top of your taxes plays a significant part.”
With the deadline for the 2023/24 tax return set at 31 January 2025, Salter suggests that anyone who has yet to complete their submission should resolve to do so earlier this year. “It will help you avoid stress and the risk of an HMRC penalty,” he says.
He also points out that taxpayers may be overlooking valuable reliefs, particularly if they pay tax at 40 or 45 per cent. Gift aid contributions can deliver immediate savings when claimed through a self-assessment tax return, and those made during the 2024/25 tax year can still be brought forward for relief in the earlier year if completed before filing.
According to Salter, pension planning can also be a powerful new year pledge. Bonuses paid in February or March could be directed into a pension scheme via an employer contribution rather than taken as cash, potentially reducing the overall tax bill.
For those looking to maximise their state pension, Salter highlights a National Insurance Contributions (NICs) easement which remains available until 5 April 2025. This allows people to fill in any gaps dating back to 2006/07 and could boost future pension payments.
Another resolution could be to review how investments are held, especially for couples where one spouse is a non-taxpayer or lower-rate taxpayer. Transferring assets legally to the lower-rate taxpayer could make the most of personal allowances and potentially reduce the overall tax burden.
Salter finally advises checking your PAYE tax code for 2025/26 to ensure any pension contributions, professional subscriptions or benefits-in-kind are accurately reflected: “That way, you get the right tax relief straight away and avoid a shock bill when your return is filed.”
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Make tax-savvy new year’s resolutions to cut stress and save money

Kevin O’Leary, famed for his role as “Mr Wonderful” on the American series Shark Tank, has revealed plans to join billionaire Frank McCourt’s consortium in a high-stakes effort to acquire TikTok.
The move comes amid growing pressure on the Chinese-owned video platform, which could be banned in the United States if its parent company ByteDance fails to divest the app by 19 January.
Last spring, President Joe Biden signed into law measures compelling ByteDance to sell off TikTok’s US operations by this month’s deadline or face a ban—removing the app from American app stores and disabling access via web browsers. TikTok has challenged the legislation, arguing it represents censorship and breaches US First Amendment rights. However, supporters of the ban claim the platform poses a potential national security threat by sharing data with Chinese authorities.
McCourt, founder of Project Liberty and executive chairman of McCourt Global, announced in December that he was assembling a group of backers—named the “People’s Bid for TikTok”. Project Liberty’s primary goal is to hand control of users’ data back to the users themselves. According to McCourt, verbal commitments of up to $20 billion have already been pledged for the takeover.
O’Leary told Fox News on Monday that he and McCourt would need to collaborate with President-elect Donald Trump to complete any deal, particularly as Trump has asked the Supreme Court to delay the ban so he can try to salvage the platform. The Supreme Court is scheduled to review the ban on Friday, and Trump will be sworn into office the day after the deadline.
“This isn’t just about buying TikTok’s US assets,” O’Leary said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter). “It’s about something much bigger: protecting the privacy of 170 million American users. It’s about empowering creators and small businesses. And it’s about building a platform that prioritises people over algorithms.”
Neither Project Liberty nor Kevin O’Leary responded to requests for comment on Tuesday.
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Kevin O’leary joins billionaire’s bid to buy TikTok as US ban deadline nears

Piers Morgan has parted ways with Rupert Murdoch’s media empire in a move set to expand his popular Uncensored show on YouTube, ending months of speculation about his future at News UK.
The outspoken broadcaster will now operate independently, having acquired ownership of his Uncensored brand and its 3.6 million-strong subscriber base.
Morgan, 59, opted not to renew his contract with News UK, where he held a reported £50 million deal covering columns, book rights, and a TalkTV programme. His departure appeared inevitable after he stepped back from his nightly TalkTV show—complaining it was a “straitjacket”—to focus on YouTube broadcasting. The Uncensored channel will now be developed independently, allowing greater flexibility on scheduling and content creation, particularly in the United States and other international markets.
Under a four-year partnership struck through Morgan’s Wake Up Productions, Rupert Murdoch’s company will retain a share of advertising revenue. However, Morgan will run Uncensored outside News UK’s direct oversight, while continuing to write columns for its newspapers and deliver a book to publisher HarperCollins this year.
Explaining his decision, Morgan said: “Owning the brand allows my team and I the freedom to focus exclusively on building Uncensored into a stand-alone business, editorially and commercially, and in time, widening it from just me and my content.”
Morgan’s guest roster has seen high-profile figures such as Donald Trump, Jordan Peterson, Volodymyr Zelensky, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Cristiano Ronaldo debate on Uncensored. He has hinted that Elon Musk could soon join this list. While continuing his combative interview style, Morgan emphasised that YouTube—unlike conventional linear TV—lets him broadcast live discussions at any time to a global audience.
Scott Taunton, head of broadcasting at News UK, said the new model grants Morgan “flexibility to grow his own business by leveraging his position as a true global opinion former” and keeps the two parties commercially linked. Morgan has also signed a deal with US-based Red Seat Ventures to help monetise his brand further through sponsorship and additional revenue streams.
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Piers Morgan quits Murdoch empire to build Uncensored brand independently on YouTube

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, has confirmed he is weighing up a bid to succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister.
Trudeau announced on Monday that he would step down after nearly a decade in office, prompting the Liberal party to scramble for a new leader ahead of an impending general election.
Carney, 59, rose to prominence as the first non-Briton to head the Bank of England. He previously led the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, earning a reputation for his cool handling of the global financial crisis. Since leaving the Bank of England in 2020, Carney has served as chair at Brookfield Asset Management and as a United Nations special envoy for climate action and finance.
In a statement quoted by Bloomberg, where he sits as chair of the board, Carney said he was “encouraged” by support from Liberal lawmakers and Canadians who “want us to move forward with positive change and a winning economic plan”. He pledged to consult family members before making a definitive decision.
Speculation around Carney’s possible leadership ambitions has been fuelled by Trudeau’s falling poll numbers in the face of high inflation, record food prices and widespread voter fatigue. The Liberal government’s agenda for carbon pricing is also under fire from the Conservative party, whose leader Pierre Poilievre has labelled Carney “Carbon Tax Carney”.
Pollsters currently give the Conservatives a strong chance of forming a majority government. A recent Angus Reid Institute survey placed Carney second behind former deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland in a list of potential Liberal leaders.
Trudeau’s resignation comes amid anxiety over Canada’s economic outlook and the possibility of US tariffs under incoming president Donald Trump, which could potentially damage Canadian trade. An election is due before October, though the exact date remains unconfirmed.
Carney’s diverse background — he holds Canadian, Irish, and, since 2018, British citizenship — adds an international element to his profile. His economic pedigree and climate change advocacy might well appeal to Liberals seeking a fresh perspective for a party facing a difficult electoral challenge.
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Mark Carney considering bid to replace Justin Trudeau in race for Canadian premiership

Hundreds of current and former McDonald’s employees – some as young as 19 – have joined a legal action against the fast-food giant over allegations of bullying, sexual abuse and harassment across more than 450 UK outlets.
The complaint, filed through law firm Leigh Day, follows a fresh wave of accusations highlighted by a BBC investigation. The broadcaster reported that workers at McDonald’s faced “unacceptable” conduct despite promises made by the company last year to address such issues.
The developments come as Alistair Macrow, chief executive of McDonald’s in the UK, prepares to testify before the business and trade committee of MPs, who are expected to ask how the fast-food chain has handled the alleged misconduct. McDonald’s, one of Britain’s biggest private sector employers with a workforce of 168,000 and more than 1,400 restaurants, said it had pressed the BBC for details of the reported cases “to allow us to carry out full investigations” but had yet to receive them.
One 19-year-old claimant told Leigh Day he suffered homophobic abuse from managers and fellow staff, with insults including being called a “faggot”. Another claimant said he was bullied over his learning disability and eye condition, and that managers were “touching other staff up” and making racist remarks. Other examples include a young worker being pressured for sex and one manager making offensive references to staff based on their nationality.
The Equality and Human Rights Commission (EHRC) says it has received about 300 reports of harassment at McDonald’s restaurants since the original BBC investigation. It has escalated its intervention, saying it is working “to update our ongoing legal agreement in light of serious allegations raised by our work with the company, and the BBC investigation”.
McDonald’s insists it is committed to safeguarding staff and has improved its reporting structures, including introducing a digital whistleblowing platform called Red Flags and a dedicated investigations team. It said it had hired its first head of safeguarding and was “confident” it is taking “significant and important steps” towards eliminating abusive behaviour.
Emma Cocker, Senior Associate in the Employment team at Lawrence Stephens Solicitors, commented that workers on zero-hours contracts can feel especially vulnerable. “They are likely fearful of being subjected to detrimental treatment for raising complaints,” she said. “It would appear McDonald’s still has a long way to go in providing a safe working environment. The longer businesses allow this kind of behaviour to persist, the longer the list of grievances and legal claims they will face.”
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McDonald’s faces legal challenge from over 700 workers amid harassment claims

Britain’s retailers have suffered another blow after budget-conscious consumers reined in their Christmas spending, disappointing hopes of a bumper festive season and leaving the “golden quarter” with only muted growth.
Figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor show that total sales rose by just 0.4 per cent over the three months to December, compared with the same period in 2023. Households wary of rising living costs appear to have kept a tight grip on their wallets in the final weeks of 2024.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, noted that the “crucial ‘golden quarter’ failed to give 2024 the send-off retailers were hoping for” after what has already been a challenging year of weak consumer confidence and economic strain.
Overall sales grew by 0.7 per cent in 2024, compared with 2023, but a 3.3 per cent uplift in food sales was dented by a 1.4 per cent drop in non-food categories. Clothing, footwear, computing, furniture, and toys were among those areas hit by more cautious spending.
Although December – combined with the impact of Black Friday at the end of November – yielded a 3.2 per cent year-on-year lift, the BRC suggested those figures were flattered by the late timing of last year’s Black Friday deals. AI-enabled gadgets and beauty advent calendars proved to be holiday bestsellers.
Dickinson said food sales “fared better” in December, inching up by 1.7 per cent year-on-year, although this was weaker than the 6.3 per cent growth seen in December 2023. Some shoppers opted to trade up to more premium food items for Christmas, offering some respite for grocers.
Linda Ellett, head of consumer, retail and leisure for KPMG UK, described the run-up to Christmas as showing “minimal” growth, reflecting the “ongoing careful management of many household budgets”. Data released by the BRC also pointed to a “drab December” on high streets and in shopping centres, with footfall likely affected by wet and windy weather.
Separate figures from Barclays revealed flat consumer card spending growth in December, suggesting that the combination of cost pressures and economic uncertainty has weighed on dining out and discretionary spending.
The retail sector’s lacklustre festive period raises concerns over how individual businesses fared. A flurry of post-Christmas updates from major players such as Next, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Marks & Spencer is expected to offer more insight, although many non-food retailers are braced for disappointing results.
Discount grocers Lidl and Aldi have both reported year-on-year increases in total festive sales, at 7 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively, but they have not provided like-for-like figures excluding new store openings.
The BRC has warned of a “spending squeeze” this January after public confidence in the economy slid by eight points to minus 27 last month. It forecasts sales growth of only 1.2 per cent this year, falling below the 1.8 per cent shop price inflation and implying a drop in sales volumes.
On top of that, retailers face a projected £7 billion increase in costs due to rising national insurance contributions, an uplift in the national living wage announced in October’s budget, and new packaging levies. The trade body warns that covering these costs by raising prices or cutting investment will harm the sector further and undermine high streets.
The BRC urged the government to “find ways to minimise this”, beginning with a planned review of business rates to prevent stores from facing higher bills than they do currently.
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Festive golden quarter falls short for UK retailers as shoppers hold back

Britain’s presence at CES, the world’s largest technology trade fair, has dwindled in recent years, according to the event’s organiser.
Gary Shapiro, chief executive of the Consumer Technology Association (CTA), said it was “a shame” and “doesn’t make sense” that UK engagement has dropped off, even though the country still has strong potential in innovation.
He noted that other European nations, including France and the Netherlands, were visibly better represented in Eureka Park, the convention’s dedicated area for start-ups. “Even Ukraine might be bigger than the UK,” Shapiro said, adding that the government no longer offers the same support it once did.
CES, held each year in Las Vegas, typically attracts thousands of exhibitors and some 400,000 visitors. It showcases cutting-edge products from technology giants like Microsoft, while also providing a global platform for smaller ventures. This year, just 41 UK companies will attend, including Etc (BT Group’s incubation arm), the female-focused healthtech firm Elvie, and the precise location business what3words.
Back in 2019, more than 100 British firms formed a UK delegation led by then international trade secretary Liam Fox. Eight of those companies won innovation awards, and the government spoke of “millions of pounds worth of deals” being signed at the show. Shapiro called it “crazy” that the UK no longer puts as much energy into CES, given the longstanding ties between the two countries.
“We are the largest technology event in the world by far,” he said. “We are definitely the biggest business event in the United States and attract over 50,000 people from outside the US.”
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UK support at global tech show less than Ukraine in puzzling move

Nearly every small business in the UK is bracing for staff cutbacks in the wake of proposed employment law changes, according to a survey by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB).
The survey of 1,270 companies found that 92 per cent fear the new legislation will undermine hiring and expansion plans, with nearly a third planning to reduce their workforce in the next year.
The bill, currently under committee scrutiny in the House of Commons, aims to address what ministers describe as an imbalance of power between employers and workers. Among its measures are ending zero-hours contracts, expanding statutory sick pay, strengthening union rights, and granting workers protection from unfair dismissal from day one of their employment.
Critics, particularly from the small business community, argue these changes could raise operating costs and depress already fragile confidence. The cost impact may be exacerbated by recent fiscal moves, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s £40 billion in tax hikes and a 6.7 per cent increase in the minimum wage, both of which take effect this year.
Tina McKenzie, policy chair at the FSB, warned that “small firms have made it crystal clear” the bill will diminish their appetite to hire. She said they worry that increased legal risks around unfair dismissal claims may hamper recruitment and investment.
The Department for Business and Trade maintains that the legislation is part of a wider effort to boost living standards and drive economic growth, noting that “this government is pro-business and pro-worker”. It points to its recent steps to tackle late payments and bolster funding for small firms as evidence of its commitment.
KPMG and the Bank of England have each suggested that higher government spending may offer a short-term boost to the economy, although the central bank cautioned inflation is likely to remain above target, potentially weighing on growth and business sentiment into 2024 and beyond.
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Small businesses warn of layoffs as new employment rights bill prompts worry