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The credibility of UK economic data has been thrown into doubt after senior officials at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Bank of England raised serious concerns about the reliability of statistics produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Speaking to MPs on the Treasury select committee, Richard Hughes, chairman of the OBR, warned that “trying to get a clear read” on the UK economy from current ONS data is “very difficult”. His comments follow a sharp decline in response rates to the ONS’s labour force survey, which has compromised the quality of data on employment and wage trends.
The situation has now triggered a formal government investigation into the “performance and culture” of the ONS. The review, commissioned by the Cabinet Office and the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA), will be led by Sir Robert Devereux, a former top civil servant, and is expected to conclude this summer.
The ONS’s labour force survey — a key tool used by the Bank of England and the OBR to inform monetary and fiscal policy — has seen its response rate fall from around 50 per cent a decade ago to just 12.7 per cent in 2023. Although it has since improved marginally, the data remains under significant scrutiny. The ONS has delayed the rollout of a new “transformed labour force survey” until 2027, despite spending £40 million on its development.
Professor David Miles, a fellow OBR committee member, compared the current approach to “trying to generate economic data with a tool which isn’t working as well as it did in the past”.
Beyond labour data, confidence in other key metrics — including GDP, trade, and inflation — has also weakened. The ONS has recently delayed publication of several important statistics due to quality concerns, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has criticised a recent £2.2 trillion revision in household wealth estimates as “fundamentally flawed”.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has described the shortcomings in the ONS’s data as a “substantial problem” for interest rate setting.
Sir Robert Chote, chair of the UKSA, said the review into the ONS is an opportunity to ensure the statistics agency is equipped to meet rising expectations. “This is a chance to help ensure the ONS can deliver of its best in what is a challenging external environment.”
Concerns have been echoed by Dame Meg Hillier MP, chair of the Treasury select committee, who recently wrote to UK chief statistician Sir Ian Diamond to express alarm about the impact of unreliable labour market data on policy decisions.
The accuracy of ONS data underpins everything from interest rate movements to government tax and spending decisions. Forecasts produced by the OBR are heavily reliant on these figures to determine fiscal headroom — the margin chancellors such as Rachel Reeves have to meet borrowing rules.
Hughes also told MPs that the OBR did not factor in President Trump’s proposed 25 per cent car tariffs in its spring economic forecast, citing their rapidly shifting nature. Had they been included, the chancellor’s £9.9 billion fiscal buffer could have been significantly eroded.
The OBR did, however, model potential outcomes of the tariffs in alternative scenarios — including one where retaliatory trade measures reduce UK GDP by 1 per cent.
While challenges with data collection are affecting other developed economies, experts warn that the UK’s issues are becoming particularly acute. The response rate for the Living Costs and Food Survey has dropped from 60 per cent to just 22 per cent over two decades, while the DWP’s Family Resources Survey now receives only 25 per cent participation.
With the integrity of key data under the microscope, the outcome of the Devereux review — and the government’s willingness to act on its findings — may have far-reaching implications for business confidence, policymaking, and the UK’s economic resilience.
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UK economic forecasts called into question as ONS data reliability falters

Ten of the world’s leading car manufacturers – along with two major automotive trade associations – have been fined over £77 million by the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) after admitting to illegal collusion on green advertising practices.
The watchdog found that BMW, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, Peugeot Citroën, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault, Toyota, Vauxhall, and Volkswagen had “illegally agreed” not to compete when advertising how recyclable their cars were at the end of their lifecycle. With the exception of Renault, the manufacturers also agreed not to disclose how much recycled material was used in their vehicles — limiting transparency for environmentally conscious car buyers.
The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) and the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) were also implicated, accused of facilitating the agreements among manufacturers.
The cartel agreement was known internally as the “ELV Charta”, or informally, a “gentleman’s agreement”, and was in effect from May 2002 until September 2017 — with Jaguar Land Rover joining in 2008.
The scheme came to light after a tipoff from Mercedes-Benz, which cooperated with the CMA’s investigation and was granted immunity from financial penalties under the leniency policy.
The CMA said this illegal behaviour harmed consumers by restricting access to information needed to make informed choices about the environmental credentials of vehicles.
“Colluding to restrict competition is illegal — and that extends to how you advertise your products,” said Lucilia Falsarella Pereira, senior director of competition enforcement at the CMA.
“This kind of collusion limits consumers’ ability to make informed choices and reduces the incentive for companies to invest in environmental progress.”
Following the CMA’s probe, SMMT, Stellantis (owner of Opel, Peugeot Citroën and Vauxhall), and Mitsubishi also applied for leniency, leading to reduced fines in return for cooperation.
A spokesperson for Renault, which was fined in both the UK and the EU, noted that the offending practices took place “at a time when the ELV recycling sector was still nascent” and argued the collusion “did not financially harm consumers”.
The European Commission has also fined 15 carmakers and ACEA €458 million (£383 million) following its own parallel investigation launched in 2022 into the same cartel across EU markets.
The CMA emphasised that the case shows its determination to pursue anti-competitive practices that threaten both consumer rights and innovation, especially as the environmental claims of companies face greater public scrutiny.
The 10 manufacturers fined in the UK were contacted for comment, and the CMA’s investigation is considered one of the most significant in recent years to target greenwashing through collusion.
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UK fines 10 carmakers and two trade bodies £77m over green advertising cartel

Channel 4’s chief executive, Alex Mahon, has warned that artificial intelligence companies are “scraping the value” from the UK’s £125 billion creative industries, and called on the government to impose stricter copyright protections to safeguard the sector’s future.
Speaking to MPs on the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committee, Mahon said that the government’s proposed opt-out copyright regime — which would allow AI developers to train models on copyrighted works unless creators actively object — poses a “dangerous” threat to the UK’s cultural and economic output.
“AI is clearly absolutely critical to the future of our industry,” Mahon said. “But what is happening at the moment is the scraping of value from our creative industries. The burden should be on them [AI firms], not us.”
Under current proposals, AI developers could continue to train large language models (LLMs) — like those powering tools such as ChatGPT — on vast datasets, including creative works, unless the copyright holders actively opt out. Mahon said this undermines a sector that contributes 6% of UK gross value added (GVA) and is growing 1.5 times faster than the wider economy.
“We think LLMs need to license what they use and pay properly for it. We can’t have automated scraping — we need a proper payment and licensing regime,” she said.
Her comments echo mounting concerns across the arts and media industries, where authors, artists, and film and TV executives argue that unlicensed AI training risks eroding creative livelihoods and undermining the commercial value of original works.
Mahon said UK copyright law is already clear, and the government’s suggested reforms risk tipping the balance in favour of Big Tech. She stressed that a fair, opt-in regime would be more aligned with existing licensing frameworks in creative sectors.
Alongside the AI warnings, Mahon also discussed Channel 4’s financial performance, saying the broadcaster expects to break even for 2024, after posting a £52 million deficit in 2023 — its first loss in four years. The network, which is state-owned but commercially funded, relies primarily on advertising revenue and has weathered recent turbulence in the ad market.
“I’m pleased to say that 2024 was a much better year,” Mahon said. “We will be pretty much on a flat deficit — pretty much breakeven.”
She also raised concerns about the visibility of public service broadcasters (PSBs) like Channel 4, ITV, and the BBC on new digital platforms. She argued that regulatory prominence — currently applied to traditional TV platforms — needs to be expanded to social and streaming platforms to ensure continued reach and visibility.
“Without prominence we will disappear,” she said. “We need to think about regulation for promotion, not just preservation. We should consider how to extend prominence to social platforms.”
The UK government’s consultation on AI copyright protections closed in February, and policymakers are now considering next steps. With the UK’s creative industries seen as a pillar of economic growth and soft power, the outcome could have wide-ranging implications for how artists and creators are protected in the AI age.
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Channel 4 boss warns AI firms are ‘scraping the value’ from UK’s £125bn creative industries

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has warned that a Court of Appeal ruling at the heart of the UK’s motor finance commission scandal risks legal overreach and “goes too far”, as lenders face potential compensation claims of up to £44 billion.
In a written submission to the Supreme Court on Tuesday, the City regulator pushed back against last year’s ruling, which found that car dealers acted unlawfully by failing to clearly disclose commission arrangements to borrowers — and by not securing their informed consent.
The FCA’s intervention comes as two specialist lenders, Close Brothers and FirstRand, seek to overturn the October 2023 ruling. The case has become a flashpoint in UK financial services regulation, with 90% of new car purchases and many used vehicles involving dealership-arranged loans — and millions of consumers potentially eligible for redress.
While the FCA is expected to make oral arguments later this week, it made clear in its filing that the Court of Appeal’s approach, which effectively treated motor dealers as fiduciaries — obliged to act in the borrower’s best interest — is at odds with the regulatory framework.
“The sweeping approach of the Court of Appeal in (effectively) treating motor-dealer brokers as owing fiduciary duties to consumers in the generality of cases goes too far,” the FCA said.
It argued that car dealers do not typically have this legal obligation and warned the ruling could introduce widespread uncertainty across financial markets.
The Treasury, which tried but failed to intervene in the case, is also concerned that the current ruling could spook investors and undermine UK competitiveness. Industry leaders and trade bodies including the National Franchised Dealers Association (NFDA) echoed these concerns, warning of “financial chaos” if such legal duties were imposed without regulatory consultation.
“A novel duty that has not been consulted upon… has the capacity to cause havoc within an established commercial order,” the NFDA said in its submission.
Mark Howard KC, representing Close Brothers, compared car dealers to shop staff, saying they had no greater duty to act in a customer’s financial interest than a retail assistant helping a shopper choose a suit.
“They are there to make a sale,” he told the panel of Supreme Court judges.
However, while the FCA disagreed with the Court of Appeal’s sweeping interpretation, it warned the Supreme Court not to completely dismiss concerns about how commission arrangements may incentivise misconduct, particularly when it comes to “potential bribery” or secret payments that influence sales.
Consumer campaigners criticised the FCA’s position, accusing the regulator of siding with lenders over consumers. Darren Smith, managing director of claims firm Courmacs Legal, said the FCA should be standing up for the millions who may have been mis-sold finance.
“On a day when millions of people’s bills are going up, it’s hard to understand why the FCA aren’t on the side of consumers,” Smith said. “The regulator should be standing up for consumers, not protecting lenders who have taken them for a ride.”
The outcome of the Supreme Court case, which runs until Thursday, is expected to have far-reaching consequences not just for the car finance market, but potentially for other commission-based financial products — including insurance and loans — triggering one of the largest compensation liabilities since the PPI scandal.
With pressure mounting from both sides, the FCA’s balancing act between consumer protection and financial system stability has rarely been more under scrutiny.
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FCA says motor finance compensation ruling ‘goes too far’ as lenders face £44bn claims risk

Small businesses across the UK are being given the chance to pitch for a share of £1 million in funding as NatWest launches its Accelerator Pitch competition to celebrate ten years of its free NatWest Accelerator programme.
The initiative invites ambitious entrepreneurs to submit a 60-second video pitch explaining how funding would help their business grow. Applicants must demonstrate a strong track record of goal-setting and achievement, along with a compelling case for how they’d use the funding to fuel their next stage of growth.
Shortlisted entries will be invited to live regional finals — the first in Manchester this July, followed by London in 2025, with more regional finals planned across the UK. At each event, five finalists will deliver ‘Dragon’s Den’-style pitches to a panel of expert judges. A total of £100,000 in funding will be awarded at each final, with £70,000 going to the top business.
Darren Pirie, Head of the NatWest Accelerator, said the competition reaffirms the bank’s commitment to championing entrepreneurs: “As Britain’s biggest bank for start-ups, we believe supporting small business growth is key to a strong economy. This competition is a fantastic opportunity for entrepreneurs to showcase their success and show us how they’ll scale to the next level. My advice is: don’t be modest – tell us what makes your business special!”
Since its launch in 2015, the NatWest Accelerator has supported nearly 10,000 small businesses, offering free access to expert coaching, workshops, mentorship, and a collaborative business network. In 2025, the programme will expand with the launch of a new digital community, enabling even more entrepreneurs to access support.
Finalists in the Accelerator Pitch will be judged on their business models, innovation, growth potential, and how much of an impact the funding will have on their plans.
To enter, business owners must submit their pitch videos through the NatWest Accelerator platform. Submissions are open now, and the first winners will be announced in Manchester this summer.
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NatWest launches £1 million competition to accelerate small business growth

Hiring the right staff has always been a challenge for businesses, but for small businesses operating outside major UK cities, the struggle is even more pronounced.
With talent gravitating towards urban areas, rural and small town businesses often face difficulties attracting and retaining skilled employees. The challenge isn’t just about finding people but is about finding the right people, those with the right skills and experience who are also willing to work outside of the city.
Unlike in cities, where job seekers are abundant, rural businesses often have fewer applicants for open roles or applicants that are perhaps not quite as experienced as the role may require.
Many skilled professionals move to urban areas for better career prospects, leaving businesses in smaller towns and suburban areas with a restricted talent pool. This issue is further exacerbated by the fact that many job seekers are unaware of opportunities available outside of major hubs. With large job boards and recruitment firms often focused on metropolitan areas, smaller businesses in rural locations struggle to gain visibility among potential employees. Even when vacancies are advertised, they often receive fewer applications, limiting the choice for business owners who require skilled staff.
Transportation challenges add another layer of difficulty for rural small businesses. Many job seekers hesitate to accept roles in rural locations due to limited transport links. Unlike cities, where you have plenty of options for public transport making your commuting relatively easy, rural areas often lack consistent and reliable transport options. This makes car ownership almost essential, which is of course not always an option. Even those who do drive may be put off by the idea of a long and potentially costly commute. Additionally, rising fuel prices and the general cost of living in the UK mean that many employees are reluctant to take jobs that require significant travel.
Even in cases where businesses find suitable candidates, wage expectations can create further obstacles. Larger companies in cities can afford to offer higher salaries, along with attractive benefits such as private healthcare, gym memberships, and generous pension contributions.
Small businesses operating on tighter budgets may struggle to match these incentives, making it difficult to attract top talent. Additionally, many job seekers expect remote or hybrid working options, which are not always feasible for roles that require a physical presence. This puts rural businesses at a disadvantage when competing for skilled workers. Beyond salary concerns, generational preferences also play a role in recruitment challenges.
Younger workers, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, often prioritise jobs that offer flexibility, career progression, and include a vibrant work environment. Many view rural jobs as limiting in terms of networking opportunities and career advancement, leading them to favour roles in urban areas where professional communities are more established. To address these challenges, small businesses must adopt innovative and strategic recruitment approaches. One of the most effective ways to expand the talent pool is by offering hybrid or fully remote roles. While not all jobs can be performed remotely, businesses that provide flexible working arrangements will have a greater chance of attracting skilled professionals who prefer to live in cities but are open to working for a rural employer. Even allowing employees to work from home a few days a week can make a position more appealing which does mean that as a business you have to start to adapt to the idea of hybrid working, although this may be attractive to applicantants it is usually not attractive to the business itself.
For roles that require a physical presence, businesses need to find creative ways to make their job offers more attractive. While it may not be possible to compete with city based salaries, employers can provide alternative perks, such as flexible working hours, additional holiday allowances, or professional development opportunities.
Another crucial strategy is investing in local talent through training and apprenticeship programmes. Businesses can partner with local colleges, universities, and government funded initiatives to provide skills development opportunities. Apprenticeships, in particular, offer a way for businesses to train employees from within the community, ensuring a steady pipeline of skilled workers. By nurturing talent locally, businesses can reduce reliance on city based hires while also strengthening ties with the community.
Employer branding is another key factor in attracting staff. Many small businesses underestimate the importance of marketing themselves as great places to work. In today’s digital age, having a strong online presence is essential. Businesses should leverage social media, company websites, and networking events to showcase their work culture, employee success stories, and career growth opportunities. A well crafted employer brand can help change perceptions and position a business as an attractive employer, even if it is located outside of a major city.
Government support and policy changes could also make a difference. Businesses should stay informed about government grants and funding opportunities that support workforce development in rural areas. Engaging with policymakers and industry associations can help ensure that the challenges faced by rural employers are recognised and addressed.
While hiring in rural areas will always have its challenges, small businesses that invest in local talent, enhance their employer branding will stand a much better chance of attracting and retaining the right staff. Cities may continue to dominate the job market, but with the right approach, businesses outside urban centres can still compete and thrive. By focusing on creative recruitment strategies, offering attractive incentives, and working together as a community, rural businesses can turn their hiring struggles into opportunities for long-term success.
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The Rural Recruitment Struggle: Finding the Right Staff Outside the City

More than half of UK organisations are planning to cut expenses in response to rising government-imposed costs, including new tax and National Insurance increases taking effect from April 6th, according to a new survey of finance leaders.
The research, conducted by financial management software provider AccountsIQ and expense management platform ExpenseIn, reveals that 52% of businesses are introducing expense cuts to manage financial pressure. A quarter (25%) of respondents said they had already implemented new restrictions on expense budgets, with a further 17% considering similar measures in the near future. Only 5% of respondents said they had no plans to reduce expenses.
The survey gathered insights from 125 UK-based CFOs and senior finance professionals and highlights how companies are adjusting their cost structures as they navigate rising tax liabilities and an increasingly challenging economic landscape.
Payroll and employee expenses were identified as the top two areas of finance operations under scrutiny — with 46% of finance leaders closely reviewing payroll and 24% targeting expenses. The findings suggest that many organisations are reassessing staffing levels, operational costs, and financial processes as they strive to do more with less.
Darren Cran, CEO of AccountsIQ, commented: “These figures demonstrate how finance teams are being asked to navigate an increasingly complex environment, with rising costs and ever-changing regulations always on the horizon. That said, this doesn’t have to be all doom and gloom. We’re seeing ambitious businesses embrace cutting-edge technologies to drive automation and efficiency.”
He added that finance leaders have a significant opportunity to modernise and streamline operations by leveraging new digital tools — particularly in the face of economic pressures and shifting compliance demands.
The survey also highlighted the top challenges businesses face when managing expenses today. Compliance with changing regulations was the leading concern (40%), followed by manual processes (23%) — underscoring the demand for more robust, automated financial systems.
Richard Jones, Managing Director of ExpenseIn, said: “With employee expense policies tightening, businesses need better visibility and control over spending. Simplifying expense management through automation can help finance teams ensure compliance while reducing the administrative burden on employees.”
As organisations prepare for new fiscal realities, the emphasis is now on building resilient, tech-enabled finance functions that can adapt to change, maintain compliance, and drive long-term operational efficiency.
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Over half of UK organisations to cut expenses amid rising government costs, survey finds

Consumer spending in the United States rose in February but fell short of economists’ expectations, as households cut back on dining and travel while grappling with rising costs and economic uncertainty.
Figures released by the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that consumer spending climbed by 0.4 per cent last month. This followed a downwardly revised 0.3 per cent decline in January and was slightly below economists’ expectations of a 0.5 per cent rebound.
The data suggests that American households remain cautious about non-essential purchases. Spending on restaurants, hotels and motels dropped sharply by 15 per cent, while expenditure at non-profit institutions also slumped by 15.8 per cent — likely impacted by federal funding cuts as President Trump moves to shrink government spending.
However, the overall picture was supported by stronger sales of durable goods, including motor vehicles, furniture, and household equipment. Non-durable goods such as food and beverages also saw a modest rise, while services spending edged up 0.2 per cent.
The weaker-than-expected rebound in spending comes amid mounting pressure on US households from rising prices and concerns over the economic outlook. Economists are increasingly warning that a series of tariffs imposed by President Trump could push inflation higher, particularly on imported goods.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that inflation had begun to rise, “partly in response to tariffs,” and warned that further progress towards the central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target could be delayed.
In the 12 months to February, core inflation — which excludes food and energy — rose to 2.8 per cent, up from 2.7 per cent in January.
The Fed, which tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index as its preferred inflation measure, left interest rates unchanged last week, maintaining its benchmark range between 4.25 and 4.50 per cent. Financial markets currently expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in June, but analysts are growing more sceptical.
Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said the spending figures support the view that the Fed may hold off on rate cuts this year. “Admittedly, officials are likely to be concerned by the evidence of slower consumer spending growth, but we suspect that is partly due to the unseasonably severe winter weather,” he said.
With inflation still running hot and consumer sentiment fragile, policymakers will be watching closely for signs that demand is cooling — or whether further interest rate adjustments may be needed to keep inflation in check while supporting household spending.
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US consumer spending rises in February, but falls short of expectations

Retailers are more optimistic about their profits and growth prospects than at any point in nearly a decade, according to new data from Lloyds Bank — signalling growing confidence in the UK economy despite continued fiscal pressures and global uncertainty.
The bank’s latest Business Barometer, released on Monday, found that optimism among retailers surged in March to its highest level since August 2015. Sentiment in the sector jumped by seven points to 58 per cent — well above the overall UK business confidence reading of 49 per cent, which held steady at a seven-month high.
The upbeat data follows stronger-than-expected retail sales figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which reported sales rising by 1.4 per cent in January and 1 per cent in February. Real incomes also posted their fastest rise in nearly ten years at the end of 2023, supporting a pick-up in consumer spending.
The ONS said the savings ratio — the share of disposable income being saved — remained well above the long-run average at 12 per cent in the final quarter of 2023, suggesting there is still room for households to release further spending power.
Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Commercial Banking, said: “Business confidence remained steady this month, suggesting that UK companies may have been waiting to see the impact of government decisions at home and globally. Despite this, the data continues to reflect a positive growth trend in the UK economy.”
According to the survey of 1,200 firms conducted before Rachel Reeves’s spring statement, nearly two-thirds of businesses said they expected to grow in the year ahead. However, there was a slight dip in hiring expectations, reflecting continued concerns over labour costs and tax pressures.
In particular, tax rises announced in the October budget continue to loom over business planning. From 6 April, the main rate of employers’ national insurance will rise from 13.8 per cent to 15 per cent, and the earnings threshold triggering contributions will fall from £9,100 to £5,000 — a move that could hit labour-intensive employers hard, especially in retail and hospitality.
Despite these concerns, many economists believe that private sector surveys may have overstated the likely impact on hiring, noting that the tax hike amounts to less than 1 per cent of GDP.
Looking ahead, 63 per cent of businesses surveyed said they planned to increase prices over the coming year — reflecting both inflationary expectations and a stronger demand outlook — while only 2 per cent said they would cut them.
The Bank of England last week left interest rates unchanged at 4.5 per cent but warned that inflation could rise again later this year. Still, with retail sentiment buoyant and consumer spending showing resilience, confidence across the sector appears to be mounting — positioning UK retailers for a potentially strong 2024.
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Retailers’ profit optimism hits highest level in a decade, says Lloyds